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Markets/Will Elon Musk announce a presidential run before 2027?
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Will Elon Musk announce a presidential run before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

6%YES
95%NO

Volume 24h

$7K

Liquidity

$18K

Bid / Ask

5% / 6%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

6%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk announce a presidential run before 2027?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will Elon Musk announce a presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692314

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 6%99%
Buy YES@ 6¢
Edge

+9.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 95¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+9.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this