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Markets/Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?
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Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 2 signals
5%FIS
+1ppvs market 5%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +0.8pp above current market price; market at 5% may be underpriced with macro signals showing VIX +2.0% ↑, S&P -0.1% ↓, DXY -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroVIX +2.0% ↑, S&P -0.1% ↓, DXY -0.1% ↓
+3.3pp
HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]
-1.0pp
Live compute10:26 AM

Polymarket Price

5%YES
95%NO

Volume 24h

$30

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

4% / 5%

Spread

0.60pp

Expert Signal

5%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $30 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692322

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 5%99%
Buy YES@ 5¢
Edge

+8.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 95¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+8.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this