Markets/Will Railbird self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?

Will Railbird self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 08:40 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

11%YES

89%NO

Volume 24h

$50

Liquidity

$448

Bid / Ask

6% / 16%

Spread

10.00pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-15.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

27% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

11% YES — lowest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Biggest move: -19.0pp

38% → 19%

Mar 17, 2026

Peak probability

38% YES — highest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Current

12% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 11%99%

Buy YES@ 11¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 89¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Railbird self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $50 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 10.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Railbird self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/693777