Markets/Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?

Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 04:20 PM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

6%YES

94%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$1K

Bid / Ask

3% / 9%

Spread

5.70pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-6.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

22% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Biggest move: -16.5pp

39% → 23%

Mar 14, 2026

Peak probability

44% YES — highest in period

Mar 5, 2026

Current

16% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Mar 17, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 6%99%

Buy YES@ 6¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 94¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 5.70 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/693778