Markets/Will Todd Graham be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Will Todd Graham be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 03:04 PM UTC

Closes August 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

10%YES

90%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

1% / 19%

Spread

17.90pp

Expert Signal

10%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 10%99%

Buy YES@ 10¢

Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%

½ Kelly0.0%

Buy NO@ 90¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Todd Graham be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 17.90 percentage points. The market closes on August 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Todd Graham be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/704345

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