Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Closes August 18, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$725
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
80% / 83%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
81%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Matt Gaetz be the Republican nominee for Florida…
7 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-2.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?" at 82% YES / 18% NO. In the last 24 hours, $725 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 81%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on August 18, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 82%, NO 18%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/704474
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