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Markets/Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
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Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

Closes August 18, 2026

Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

82%YES
19%NO

Volume 24h

$725

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

80% / 83%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

81%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 82%99%
Buy YES@ 82¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.7%
½ Kelly1.4%
Buy NO@ 19¢

-2.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?" at 82% YES / 18% NO. In the last 24 hours, $725 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 81%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on August 18, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 82%, NO 18%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/704474