Markets/Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 11:39 AM UTC

Closes September 20, 2026

Polymarket Price

15%YES

85%NO

Volume 24h

$21

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

14% / 16%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

15%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 15%99%

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 85¢

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EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

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From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?" at 15% YES / 85% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 15%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on September 20, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 15%, NO 85%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/789957

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