Markets/Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?

Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?

Market Price

82%YES

FM Estimate

80%

NO18%

Vol 24h$21

Liquidity$15K

Bid / Ask81% / 82%

Spread1.00pp

Macro fundamentals-2.3pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. Kuomintang (KMT): 82%, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP): 14%, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP): 1%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~3%.

Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government

82%

Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of

14%

Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) win the most head of local

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?" at 82% YES / 18% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 82%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-22). "Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 82%, NO 18%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/814612