Will Ché Ahn advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Closes June 2, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$180
Liquidity
$8K
Bid / Ask
5% / 8%
Spread
2.80pp
Expert Signal
6%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election…
2026
9 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-4.8%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Ché Ahn advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $180 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 2.80 percentage points. The market closes on June 2, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Ché Ahn advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/825456
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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