Markets/Will David Hughes win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?

Will David Hughes win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$371

Liquidity$7K

Bid / Ask0% / 0%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesJun 30, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

3 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

Michael Bennet

Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democr

72%

Phil Weiser

Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democrati

28%

David Hughes

David Hughes win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democrat

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will David Hughes win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $371 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-01). "Will David Hughes win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/825596