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Markets/Will Scott Bottoms win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?
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Will Scott Bottoms win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?

Closes June 30, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 2 signals
18%FIS
+1ppvs market 17%

Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing VIX +2.3% ↑, S&P +0.3% ↑, DXY -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroVIX +2.3% ↑, S&P +0.3% ↑, DXY -0.1% ↓
+2.6pp
HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]
-1.0pp
Live compute10:47 AM

Polymarket Price

17%YES
83%NO

Volume 24h

$35

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

11% / 23%

Spread

11.70pp

Expert Signal

17%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Scott Bottoms win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?" at 17% YES / 83% NO. In the last 24 hours, $35 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 17%. The bid-ask spread is 11.70 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will Scott Bottoms win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 17%, NO 83%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/825853

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 17%99%
Buy YES@ 17¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 83¢
Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this