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Markets/Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?
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Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?

Closes June 30, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 2 signals
44%FIS
+1ppvs market 44%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +0.9pp above current market price; market at 44% may be underpriced with macro signals showing VIX +2.5% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroVIX +2.5% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓
+3.5pp
HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]
-1.0pp
Live compute08:44 AM

Polymarket Price

44%YES
56%NO

Volume 24h

$56

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

39% / 48%

Spread

9.00pp

Expert Signal

44%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?" at 44% YES / 56% NO. In the last 24 hours, $56 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 44%. The bid-ask spread is 9.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 44%, NO 56%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/825858

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 44%99%
Buy YES@ 44¢
Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 56¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this