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Markets/Will Jason Mikesell win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?
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Will Jason Mikesell win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?

Closes June 30, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 2 signals
3%FIS

Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing VIX +1.5% ↑, S&P +0.5% ↑, DXY -0.3% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroVIX +1.5% ↑, S&P +0.5% ↑, DXY -0.3% ↓
+1.5pp
HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]
-1.0pp
Live compute09:14 AM

Polymarket Price

3%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$5

Liquidity

$5K

Bid / Ask

1% / 4%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

3%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Jason Mikesell win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will Jason Mikesell win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/825860

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 3%99%
Buy YES@ 3¢
Edge

+20.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+20.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this