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Markets/Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?
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Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Closes May 19, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 2 signals
3%FIS

Markets appear correctly priced driven by USA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]
-1.0pp
MacroVIX +0.6% ↑, S&P -0.1% ↓, DXY +0.1% ↑
+1.2pp
Live compute08:43 AM

Polymarket Price

3%YES
97%NO

Volume 24h

$25K

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

2% / 3%

Spread

0.70pp

Expert Signal

3%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $25K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.70 percentage points. The market closes on May 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/837768

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 3%99%
Buy YES@ 3¢
Edge

+13.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 97¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+13.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this