Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?
Closes May 19, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.3pp below current market price; market at 14% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -2.7% ↓, S&P +0.1% ↑, DXY +0.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$244
Liquidity
$14K
Bid / Ask
13% / 15%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
14%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $244 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 19, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/837769
This event has 2 active outcome markets. Keisha Lance Bottoms: 78%, Jason Esteves: 14%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~8%.
Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this