ForecastMind
Markets/Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?
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Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Closes January 1, 2027

Polymarket Price

3%YES
97%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$27K

Bid / Ask

3% / 3%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

3%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/906598

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

5% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Current

5% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 3%99%
Buy YES@ 3¢

-6.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 97¢
Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly6.3%
½ Kelly3.1%
Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 6.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this