Markets/Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

Market Price

31%YES

69%NO

FM Estimate

31%

Vol 24h$4K

Liquidity$1K

Bid / Ask24% / 39%

Spread15.00pp

ClosesJun 9, 2026

Historical patterns-1.0pp

Macro fundamentals+1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

Alan Wilson's chances of winning the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary are currently priced at 29% on Polymarket. This low probability suggests significant headwinds, with no directly relevant financial indicators currently offering a clear counterbalance. Market intelligence implies traders anticipate Wilson will face considerable difficulty securing the nomination.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets5 markets

5 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

Alan Wilson

Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Rep

31%

Pamela Evette

Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor R

30%

Nancy Mace

Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Repu

21%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

31%anchor

PredictIt

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?" at 31% YES / 69% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 30%. The bid-ask spread is 15.00pp. The market closes on June 9, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-03). "Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 31%, NO 69%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/906949