Markets/Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?

Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?

Data as of Mar 30, 2026, 08:56 PM UTC

Closes June 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

53%YES

48%NO

Volume 24h

$32K

Liquidity

$12K

Bid / Ask

52% / 53%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

53%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Event Distribution

Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican…

2026

Full event →

the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary

53%

the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary

32%

the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary

8 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

52% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

53% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 53%99%

Buy YES@ 53¢

Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO@ 48¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?" at 53% YES / 47% NO. In the last 24 hours, $32K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 53%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 53%, NO 47%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/907358

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.