Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
Closes August 11, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +0.9pp above current market price; market at 54% may be underpriced with macro signals showing VIX +2.2% ↑, S&P -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$55K
Liquidity
$14K
Bid / Ask
53% / 54%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
54%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?" at 54% YES / 46% NO. In the last 24 hours, $55K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 54%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on August 11, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 54%, NO 46%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/907983
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.9%
EV per $ wagered
-1.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this