Markets/Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 10:30 AM UTC⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

13%YES

87%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$16K

Bid / Ask

11% / 15%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

13%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

12% YES

Mar 13, 2026

Current

14% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 13%99%

Buy YES@ 13¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 87¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/943820

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