Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$12K
Expert Signal
1%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
0% YES
Mar 10, 2026
Current
1% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 19, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 1%. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/947284
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