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Markets/Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?
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Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

34%YES
66%NO

Volume 24h

$25

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

31% / 38%

Spread

7.30pp

Expert Signal

34%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?" at 34% YES / 66% NO. In the last 24 hours, $25 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 34%. The bid-ask spread is 7.30 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 34%, NO 66%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/948639

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 34%99%
Buy YES@ 34¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 66¢
Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this