Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
Closes April 29, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.6pp below current market price; market at 51% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -4.0% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑, DXY -0.2% ↓.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$8K
Liquidity
$17K
Bid / Ask
50% / 53%
Spread
3.10pp
Expert Signal
52%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?" at 51% YES / 49% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 52%. The bid-ask spread is 3.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 29, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 51%, NO 49%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/951182
This event has 6 active outcome markets. the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC): 51%, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): 49%, the Communist Party of India (CPI): 0%.
All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
47% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
50%
Apr 14, 2026
Current
50% YES (+0.4pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
+0.9%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this