Markets/Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Market Price

47%YES

53%NO

FM Estimate

48%

Vol 24h$6

Liquidity$21K

Bid / Ask44% / 51%

Spread7.00pp

ClosesJun 23, 2026

Macro fundamentals+2.9pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets6 markets

This event has 6 active outcome markets. Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee f: 47%, Oscar Romero be the Democratic Nominee for NY: 4%, Theo Chino-Tavarez be the Democratic Nominee : 1%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~47%.

Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

47%

Oscar Romero be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Theo Chino-Tavarez be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

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PredictIt

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?" at 47% YES / 53% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 46%. The bid-ask spread is 7.00pp. The market closes on June 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-23). "Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 47%, NO 53%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/973439