Markets/Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 11.5

Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 11.5

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 07:16 PM UTC

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

33%YES

68%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

20% / 44%

Spread

24.00pp

Expert Signal

32%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.2pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

33% YES

Mar 23, 2026

Current

32% YES (-1.5pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 33%99%

Buy YES@ 33¢

Edge

+1.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 68¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 11.5" at 33% YES / 67% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 32%. The bid-ask spread is 24.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 11.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 33%, NO 67%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1688968

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