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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 4.5
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Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 4.5

Closed April 5, 2026

Polymarket Price

65%YES
36%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$177

Bid / Ask

59% / 66%

Spread

7.00pp

Expert Signal

65%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 4.5" at 65% YES / 35% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 65%. The bid-ask spread is 7.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 5, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 4.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 65%, NO 35%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1868532

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-10.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

66% YES

Apr 5, 2026

Trough probability

51% YES — lowest in period

Apr 5, 2026

Biggest move: -12.5pp

66% → 54%

Apr 5, 2026

Current

56% YES (+4.5pp recent)

Apr 6, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 65%99%
Buy YES@ 65¢
Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.4%
½ Kelly0.7%
Buy NO@ 36¢

-1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this