Markets/Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?

Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:29 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

57%YES

43%NO

Volume 24h

$11

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

55% / 59%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

57%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

56% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Biggest move: +34.0pp

56% → 91%

Feb 28, 2026

Peak probability

91% YES — highest in period

Feb 28, 2026

Current

56% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 57%99%

Buy YES@ 57¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 43¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?" at 57% YES / 43% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 57%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 57%, NO 43%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1336383