Markets/Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?

Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

76%YES

24%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

66% / 86%

Spread

20.00pp

Expert Signal

76%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

77% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Trough probability

61% YES — lowest in period

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: +26.5pp

64% → 91%

Feb 28, 2026

Peak probability

91% YES — highest in period

Feb 28, 2026

Current

78% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 12, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 76%99%

Buy YES@ 76¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 24¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?" at 76% YES / 24% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 76%. The bid-ask spread is 20.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 76%, NO 24%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1342508