Markets/Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?

Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 09:22 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

18%YES

83%NO

Volume 24h

$183

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

16% / 19%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

16%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

15% YES

Mar 12, 2026

Biggest move: -6.0pp

22% → 16%

Mar 21, 2026

Peak probability

22% YES — highest in period

Mar 21, 2026

Current

18% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 18%99%

Buy YES@ 18¢

Edge

+2.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 83¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $183 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/676797