Markets/Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs

Market Price

15%YES

85%NO

Vol 24h$582K

Liquidity$55K

Bid / Ask9% / 10%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesMay 8, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets8 markets

8 deadline markets. Combined YES = 504% — 404pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

there be a run scored in the first inning?: A

there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona

100%

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)

81%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs

15%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-28.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs" at 15% YES / 85% NO. In the last 24 hours, $582K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on May 8, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-01). "Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs." Prediction market snapshot: YES 15%, NO 85%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2077451