Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

Vol 24h$99K

Liquidity$399K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosedMay 1, 2026

Game Summary

Outcome

YES

Market resolved

Price swing

38pp

High–low range

Volume traded

$99K

24h total

Liquidity

$399K

Market depth

Probability During Game · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+6.5pp

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets11 markets

11 deadline markets. Combined YES = 600% — 500pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5

100%

Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)

100%

Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)

100%

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $99K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on May 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2127958