ForecastMind
Markets/Barcelona Open: Mariano Navone vs Andrey Rublev
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Barcelona Open: Mariano Navone vs Andrey Rublev

Closes April 20, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Medium confidence · 2 signals
37%FIS
3ppvs market 40%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -2.9pp below current market price; market at 40% may be overpriced with macro signals showing USD/RUB -1.2% ↓, Oil -4.9% ↓, VIX -4.1% ↓.

Signal breakdown

MacroUSD/RUB -1.2% ↓, Oil -4.9% ↓, VIX -4.1% ↓
-6.7pp
HistoryRUS neutral ELI → +1.0pp avg (n=48) [recent event]
-0.4pp
Pre-computed · refreshes every 6h04:37 PM

Polymarket Price

0%YES
100%NO

Volume 24h

$896K

Liquidity

$0

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Barcelona Open: Mariano Navone vs Andrey Rublev" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $896K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 20, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Barcelona Open: Mariano Navone vs Andrey Rublev." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1947851

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-30.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

31% YES

Apr 14, 2026

Trough probability

0% YES — lowest in period

Apr 14, 2026

Biggest move: -30.4pp

31% → 0%

Apr 14, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this