ForecastMind
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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/BitBoy convicted?
Share on X

BitBoy convicted?

Closed March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

80%YES
20%NO

Volume 24h

$248K

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

75% / 76%

Spread

0.90pp

Expert Signal

80%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "BitBoy convicted?" at 80% YES / 20% NO. In the last 24 hours, $248K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 80%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "BitBoy convicted?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 80%, NO 20%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/531202

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-2.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

85% YES

Mar 31, 2026

Trough probability

78% YES — lowest in period

Mar 31, 2026

Biggest move: +6.6pp

78% → 85%

Mar 31, 2026

Current

82% YES (-3.0pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 80%99%
Buy YES@ 80¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.2%
½ Kelly1.1%
Buy NO@ 20¢

-2.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this