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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4PM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4PM ET

Closed April 11, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
45%FIS
−5ppvs market 50%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -5.5pp below current market price; market at 50% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -1.7% ↓, ETH -2.5% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -1.7% ↓, ETH -2.5% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓
-5.5pp
Live compute02:35 AM

Polymarket Price

0%YES
100%NO

Volume 24h

$138K

Liquidity

$0

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4PM ET" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $138K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 11, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4PM ET." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1930424

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Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this