Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12PM ET

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

56%

Gap Signal

↑Underpriced

6.0pp

Vol 24h$144K

Liquidity$0

ClosedMay 1, 2026

Macro fundamentals+6.0pp

low confidence · 1 signals

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12PM ET" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $144K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on May 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-01). "Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12PM ET." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2116583