Bitcoin Up or Down on April 21?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

FM Estimate

64%

Vol 24h$292K

Liquidity$621K

ClosedApr 21, 2026

Macro fundamentals-1.3pp

low confidence · 1 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+11.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 21?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $292K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on April 21, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-23). "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 21?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2023737