Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 7?
Closed April 7, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +6.7pp above current market price; market at 50% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +1.3% ↑, ETH +3.4% ↑, S&P +2.9% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$449K
Liquidity
$0
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 7?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $449K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 7, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 7?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879323
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
50% YES
Apr 5, 2026
Trough probability
0% YES — lowest in period
Apr 7, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Apr 5, 2026
Biggest move: -13.0pp
36% → 23%
Apr 6, 2026
Current
0% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 7, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this