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Markets/Bitcoin Up or Down on March 30?
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Bitcoin Up or Down on March 30?

Closes March 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

86%YES
14%NO

Volume 24h

$236K

Liquidity

$45K

Bid / Ask

86% / 87%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

78%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Bitcoin Up or Down on March 30?

March

Full event →
above $60,000 on March 30?
100%
above $62,000 on March 30?
100%
above $60,000 on March 31?
99%
above $62,000 on March 31?
99%
above $64,000 on March 30?
98%
above $64,000 on March 31?
93%
above $66,000 on March 30?
86%
above $66,000 on March 31?
76%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 30?
75%
above $68,000 on March 31?
42%
above $68,000 on March 30?
36%
above $70,000 on March 31?
14%
above $70,000 on March 30?
3%
above $72,000 on March 31?
3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?
2%
above $74,000 on March 31?
2%
above $72,000 on March 30?
0%
above $76,000 on March 31?
0%
less than $62,000 on March 30?
0%
above $78,000 on March 31?
0%
above $74,000 on March 30?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 23-29?
0%
above $80,000 on March 31?
0%
above $76,000 on March 30?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on March 29?
0%
above $78,000 on March 30?
0%
above $80,000 on March 30?
0%

27 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+5.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

75% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Biggest move: +8.0pp

72% → 80%

Mar 30, 2026

Current

80% YES (+8.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 86%99%
Buy YES@ 86¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.4%
½ Kelly1.7%
Buy NO@ 15¢

-3.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Bitcoin Up or Down on March 30?" at 86% YES / 14% NO. In the last 24 hours, $236K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 78%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Bitcoin Up or Down on March 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 86%, NO 14%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1762252

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