Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 31?
Closed March 31, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.1pp above current market price; market at 50% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.4% ↑, ETH +1.4% ↑, S&P +0.5% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$339K
Liquidity
$0
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Bitcoin Up or Down on March 31?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $339K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Bitcoin Up or Down on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1777503
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
50% YES
Mar 29, 2026
Trough probability
0% YES — lowest in period
Mar 31, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
55%
Mar 31, 2026
Biggest move: -29.3pp
32% → 3%
Mar 31, 2026
Current
0% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this