ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Cavaliers vs. Jazz
Share on X

Cavaliers vs. Jazz

Closed March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

98%YES
2%NO

Volume 24h

$568K

Liquidity

$106K

Bid / Ask

94% / 95%

Spread

0.70pp

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Cavaliers vs. Jazz" at 98% YES / 2% NO. In the last 24 hours, $568K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 0.70 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Cavaliers vs. Jazz." Prediction market snapshot: YES 98%, NO 2%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1704249

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+41.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

50% YES

Mar 24, 2026

Biggest move: +18.0pp

50% → 68%

Mar 24, 2026

Peak probability

93% YES — highest in period

Mar 30, 2026

Current

91% YES (-0.2pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 98%99%
Buy YES@ 98¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly14.9%
½ Kelly7.4%
Buy NO@ 2¢

-14.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 14.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this