Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$225K

Liquidity$431K

ClosedMay 4, 2026

Game Summary

Outcome

Market resolved

Peak probability

51%

Highest YES during game

Price swing

51pp

High–low range

Volume traded

$225K

24h total

Liquidity

$431K

Market depth

Probability During Game · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-50.9pp

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets5 markets

5 deadline markets. Combined YES = 300% — 200pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5

100%

Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5

100%

Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $225K has been traded. The market closes on May 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-04). "Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2040942