Markets/Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 15.5

Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 15.5

Data as of Mar 30, 2026, 07:06 PM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

60%YES

40%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$37

Bid / Ask

27% / 54%

Spread

27.00pp

Expert Signal

40%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Price History

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Price History

+8.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

34% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Biggest move: +9.0pp

33% → 42%

Mar 30, 2026

Current

42% YES (+9.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 60%99%

Buy YES@ 60¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 40¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 15.5" at 60% YES / 40% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 40%. The bid-ask spread is 27.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 15.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 60%, NO 40%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1786813

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.