Markets/Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5

Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5

Data as of Mar 30, 2026, 07:06 PM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

36%YES

65%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$1K

Bid / Ask

43% / 51%

Spread

8.00pp

Expert Signal

36%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Price History

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Price History

+11.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

36% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Biggest move: +11.0pp

36% → 47%

Mar 30, 2026

Current

47% YES (+11.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 36%99%

Buy YES@ 36¢

Edge

+1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 65¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5" at 36% YES / 64% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 36%. The bid-ask spread is 8.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 36%, NO 64%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1786816

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.