Markets/Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner

Market Price

60%YES

40%NO

Vol 24h$135K

Liquidity$81K

Bid / Ask56% / 57%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesMay 2, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

2 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winn

60%

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winn

42%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-4.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner" at 60% YES / 40% NO. In the last 24 hours, $135K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 57%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on May 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner." Prediction market snapshot: YES 60%, NO 40%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2129035