Markets/Critical Discord Incident by May 31?

Critical Discord Incident by May 31?

Market Price

32%YES

68%NO

Vol 24h$1K

Liquidity$419

Bid / Ask28% / 35%

Spread7.00pp

ClosesMay 31, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+5.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Critical Discord Incident by May 31?" at 32% YES / 68% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 30%. The bid-ask spread is 7.00pp. The market closes on May 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-28). "Critical Discord Incident by May 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 32%, NO 68%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2070431