Markets/Databricks IPO before 2027?

Databricks IPO before 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 01:47 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

24%YES

77%NO

Volume 24h

$5K

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

22% / 24%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

24%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

27% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: -10.5pp

35% → 25%

Mar 10, 2026

Peak probability

36% YES — highest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Current

27% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 24%99%

Buy YES@ 24¢

Edge

+2.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 77¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Databricks IPO before 2027?" at 24% YES / 76% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 24%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Databricks IPO before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 24%, NO 76%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/676796