Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs
Closes March 26, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$809K
Liquidity
$31K
Bid / Ask
10% / 12%
Spread
1.50pp
Expert Signal
13%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
50% YES
Mar 26, 2026
Trough probability
26% YES — lowest in period
Mar 26, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
26%
Mar 26, 2026
Biggest move: -24.5pp
50% → 26%
Mar 26, 2026
Current
46% YES (+16.2pp recent)
Mar 26, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-1.1%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $809K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 1.50 percentage points. The market closes on March 26, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1717245
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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