Markets/Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner

Market Price

51%YES

49%NO

Vol 24h$23K

Liquidity$169K

Bid / Ask50% / 51%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesApr 26, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets5 markets

5 deadline markets. Combined YES = 450% — 350pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 1 Winne

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

100%

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 2 Winne

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner

100%

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 4 Winne

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner

51%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-2.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner" at 51% YES / 49% NO. In the last 24 hours, $23K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 50%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on April 26, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-26). "Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner." Prediction market snapshot: YES 51%, NO 49%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2085193