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Markets/Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B

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Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B

Data as of Mar 25, 2026, 02:20 AM UTC

Closed March 25, 2026

Polymarket Price

51%YES

50%NO

Volume 24h

$60K

Liquidity

$16K

Bid / Ask

49% / 51%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

50%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B

Full event →

Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - ESL One

100%

Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ (BO2) - ESL On

100%

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO2) -

100%

Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO2) - ESL One Birmingh

100%

Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy (BO2) - E

51%

Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Yakult Brothers (BO

50%

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG (BO2) - ESL One Bi

50%

Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Xtreme Gaming (BO2) -

50%

Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO2) - E

50%

Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Spirit (BO2) - ESL

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO2) - ESL One Bi

Dota 2: REKONIX vs GamerLegion (BO2) - ESL On

12 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-21.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

72% YES

Mar 24, 2026

Trough probability

50% YES — lowest in period

Mar 24, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 24, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

50%

Mar 25, 2026

Biggest move: -22.0pp

72% → 50%

Mar 24, 2026

Current

51% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 25, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 51%99%

Buy YES@ 51¢

Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO@ 50¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B" at 51% YES / 49% NO. In the last 24 hours, $60K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 50%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B." Prediction market snapshot: YES 51%, NO 49%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1696691

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