Markets/Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Market Price

13%YES

87%NO

Vol 24h$960K

Liquidity$32K

Bid / Ask7% / 8%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesApr 24, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

2 deadline markets. Market implies ~43% chance none resolve YES.

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - P

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wall

45%

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wall

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia P

13%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $960K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on April 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-24). "Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2060005